APAC Economic Outlook
Varied Challenges, Diverse Prospects
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The heterogenous nature of the Asia-Pacific region will remain on show through 2024. Asia’s largest economies, China and Japan will continue struggling through the first half of 2024. China will be weighed down by underperforming domestic demand, with the correcting property market a particular drag. The Bank of Japan will take further moves away from its ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance, but Japan's growth in 2024 will be marginal at best.
Elsewhere, India is on track to be Asia-Pacific’s fastest growing economy in 2024, building on last year’s domestically-driven momentum. For others including Southeast Asia, the second half should provide relief as easier monetary policy settings, alongside improved exports, lift prospects.
Webinar Topics:
- Monetary policy will remain in focus as most central banks eye interest rate cuts around mid-year. China and Japan are the notable exceptions as those central banks manage their unique challenges.
- Merchandise exports will pick up from the second half of 2024 as global demand is expected to turn a corner, while service exports continue to mend.
- Narrowing interest rate differentials with the US should see APAC currencies appreciate in the second half. The Japanese yen remains the big wildcard.
- Election season has arrived with approximately half the world’s population voting this year. We discuss the regional geopolitical implications.
- Most sectors are poised for an improved second half, though risks are weighted to the downside. In particular, the spillover effects of faltering growth in China, coupled with tight funding conditions, may deteriorate corporate credit quality, making early warning of risk a priority.
* We will conduct this webinar in English, and provide simultaneous interpretation in Chinese and Japanese.
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SpeakersSteve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's Analytics
Katrina Ell Director-Economic Research Moody’s Analytics
Stefan Angrick Senior Economist Moody's
Brenda Solis Analytics & Modeling Moody's Analytics
Harry Murphy Cruise Assistant Director - Economist Moody's Analytics
Denise Cheok Assistant Director - Economist Moody's
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Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s Analytics. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s Analytics research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
A highly-regarded speaker, Dr. Cochrane has provided economic insights at hundreds of engagements over the past 20 years and has been featured on CNBC, CNA, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Radio, and the PBS News Hour. Through his research and presentations, Steve dissects how various components of the macro and regional economies shape patterns of growth. His extensive expertise on U.S. and global economic issues makes also him a popular speaker at client conferences and executive briefings.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds a master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis.
Katrina Ell is a Director-Economic Research in the Sydney office of Moody’s Analytics. Katrina manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for the research, analysis and forecasting of economies throughout the Asia-Pacific region, with a particular focus on Australia and New Zealand. Katrina is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. She previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Katrina received her bachelor’s degree in economics (honours) from Macquarie University and is currently completing her Masters in Applied Economics at Macquarie University.
Stefan Angrick is an associate director and senior economist at Moody's in Tokyo. He holds a master's degree from Leipzig University and a PhD from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. He has previously held positions with Oxford Economics, the Asian Development Bank Institute, the Bank of Finland, and Keio University.
Brenda is an economist and Head of Research Insights for Asia Pacific. She leads a team of modellers and data scientists that design and implement quantitative risk management solutions for ESG and climate change, Asset Liability Management (ALM) and corporate credit risk. Brenda is also actively involved in providing research insights to support our customers, developing content for thought leadership in the region and promoting our solutions in globally.
Throughout her time at Moody's, she participated in initiatives that involved developing award winning risk models. In addition, Brenda led numerous consultancy projects with banks, fintech, regulators and investment firms worldwide, focusing on stress testing and model design.
Before joining Moody's Analytics in 2015, Brenda worked for SITA in Prague as a Treasury analyst responsible for the cash flow, currency risk management and bank relationship. In addition, she worked as a Senior Transfer Pricing consultant for EY in Mexico. Furthermore, she worked in the Mexican Ministry of Finance focusing on the liability management of the public debt in local and international markets.
Brenda holds a BA in Economics from Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, and MA degree in Economics and Finance with honors from Charles University in Prague. Currently she is pursuing a PhD in Accounting and Financial Management at University of Reading in the U.K.
Harry Murphy Cruise is an economist at Moody’s Analytics, based in Sydney. Harry is responsible for covering the Chinese and Australian economies, as well as managing Moody’s Analytics’ subnational Asia Pacific forecasts. Harry is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC and Bloomberg. He holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts and Commerce from Monash University.
Denise Cheok is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. She is responsible for forecasting and analyzing metropolitan economies across the AsiaPacific region. She writes on a variety of topics on Economic View particularly on Southeast Asia. Denise holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National University of Singapore, and a master’s degree in Economics from the University of British Columbia. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Denise previously worked as a trade policy researcher at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation