中国の不動産問題は悪化の一途をたどっています。不動産セクターの信頼は失墜し、デベロッパーの倒産が相次ぐ中、消費者は不動産を買い控えています。これまでのところ、政府による景気刺激策は、事態を好転できていません。政府が建設主導の成長から離れ経済をリバランスするなか、中国の不動産市場は今年も低迷を続けるというのが、今後辿るであろ最も可能性の高い経路でしょう。中国全体の景気回復が勢いを増すにつれ、不動産市場の数年にわたる調整は2025年に底を打ち、その後は緩やかな成長を遂げるとみられます。
とは言え、依然不確実性が残っています。ムーディーズ・アナリティックスのエコノミストが、この不安定な市場環境の複雑さを分析し、今後の不確実性を乗り切るための貴重な知見と予測を提供します。ぜひ奮ってご参加ください。
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SpeakersSteve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's Analytics
Jesse Rogers Economist Moody's Analytics
Harry Murphy Cruise Economist Moody's Analytics
Sarah Tan Economist Moody's Analytics
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Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s Analytics. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s Analytics research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
A highly-regarded speaker, Dr. Cochrane has provided economic insights at hundreds of engagements over the past 20 years and has been featured on CNBC, CNA, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Radio, and the PBS News Hour. Through his research and presentations, Steve dissects how various components of the macro and regional economies shape patterns of growth. His extensive expertise on U.S. and global economic issues makes also him a popular speaker at client conferences and executive briefings.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds a master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis.
Jesse Rogers, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, covers Latin America and emerging markets in Asia. He focuses on Chile, Peru, trade policy, international capital flows and economic development. Jesse joined Moody’s in 2014, following internships at U.S. Treasury and Institute of International Finance. Earlier, he reported on finance and politics for El Diario New York and worked at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics, Mexico City.
Harry Murphy Cruise is an economist at Moody’s Analytics, based in Sydney. Harry is responsible for covering the Chinese and Australian economies, as well as managing Moody’s Analytics’ subnational Asia Pacific forecasts. Harry is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC and Bloomberg. He holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts and Commerce from Monash University.
Sarah Tan is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. She is responsible for covering economies across the Asia-Pacific region. She holds a post-graduate diploma in EU Competition Law from King’s College London and a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National University of Singapore. Sarah was previously an economist at Changi Airports International and a senior analyst at the Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore.