China’s recovery is at a pivotal point. After the economy roared back to life early this year, momentum has waned. Across almost every metric, China is undershooting expectations; retail sales growth is modest, private fixed investment is going backwards, manufacturers are sitting on their hands and prices are dropping. Worse still, the property market’s fall is showing no signs of slowing.
So where to from here?
- Officials are slowly rolling out stimulus to support the spluttering economy: There have been tax cuts for electric vehicle sales, money to encourage renovations, and incentives to boost domestic tourism. The People’s Bank of China has also helped by cutting a series of key lending rates. Still, it’s a far cry from China’s stimulus of old.
- Households and businesses remain wary, suggesting a turnaround in spending is several months off.
- High global borrowing costs abroad are denting export demand and adding to the economy’s domestic woes.
Given all that, we have lowered our 2023 growth forecast. We’ve also lowered China’s business cycle status to “at risk” from “recovery”, highlighting the prospect that China could miss its “around 5%” growth target.
Join us as we discuss China’s challenges and also the emerging green shoots that could provide a base for a recovery heading into 2024.
* This webinar will be conducted in English and simultaneous interpretation will be available in Chinese and Japanese.
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SpeakersSteve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's Analytics
Katrina Ell Director-Economic Research Moody’s Analytics
Harry Murphy Cruise Economist Moody's Analytics
Sarah Tan Economist Moody's Analytics
Heron Lim Economist Moody's Analytics
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Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s Analytics. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s Analytics research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
A highly-regarded speaker, Dr. Cochrane has provided economic insights at hundreds of engagements over the past 20 years and has been featured on CNBC, CNA, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Radio, and the PBS News Hour. Through his research and presentations, Steve dissects how various components of the macro and regional economies shape patterns of growth. His extensive expertise on U.S. and global economic issues makes also him a popular speaker at client conferences and executive briefings.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds a master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis.
Katrina Ell is a Director-Economic Research in the Sydney office of Moody’s Analytics. Katrina manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for the research, analysis and forecasting of economies throughout the Asia-Pacific region, with a particular focus on Australia and New Zealand. Katrina is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. She previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Katrina received her bachelor’s degree in economics (honours) from Macquarie University and is currently completing her Masters in Applied Economics at Macquarie University.
Harry Murphy Cruise is an economist at Moody’s Analytics, based in Sydney. Harry is responsible for covering the Chinese and Australian economies, as well as managing Moody’s Analytics’ subnational Asia Pacific forecasts. Harry is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC and Bloomberg. He holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts and Commerce from Monash University.
Sarah Tan is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. She is responsible for covering economies across the Asia-Pacific region. She holds a post-graduate diploma in EU Competition Law from King’s College London and a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National University of Singapore. Sarah was previously an economist at Changi Airports International and a senior analyst at the Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore.
Heron Lim is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. He is also an external lecturer at ESSEC Business School, teaching at its Asia-Pacific campus. Heron previously held a position with Experian Credit Services Singapore, looking at SME issues in the region. He holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Singapore Management University.