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Agenda
09:05
- 09:40
SGT
Sovereign credit in Asia amidst slowing global growth
The slowing of China economy – long an engine for global growth – will have major implications for sovereign credit, particularly in Asia. Policymakers in China are also facing a structural transformation in the property sector and a difficult deleveraging process for regional and local governments. How will they respond to the challenging trade-offs at hand? Meanwhile, the lingering effects of recent Fed and ECB rate hikes point to more subdued global growth. What are the key risks and challenges facing Asian sovereigns?
- How will China’s economy fare, given the challenges it faces on multiple fronts?
- What risks will emerging markets face in the wake of Fed and ECB rate hikes?
- How will these external developments impact the rest of Asia?
09:40
- 09:55
SGT
Is the worst behind us for sovereign defaults?
A forward-looking analysis of sovereign defaults, after years of record-high default rates: while the recent years’ records are unlikely to repeat, default rates will remain above the long-term average for the foreseeable future.
- How will the effect of higher debt servicing costs affect debt sustainability?
- Which sovereigns can expect some improvement in credit conditions once monetary policy easing gets underway?
- What do Moody’s sovereign ratings indicate about the risk of further defaults in 2024?
09:55
- 10:30
SGT
Cyclical versus structural trends in Asia: Can domestic developments offset external uncertainties?
Much of Asia has benefited from a post-COVID growth recovery, despite a mild inflation in 2023. Fiscal consolidation has started, while monetary policy remains balanced. But higher global interest rates, slowing growth in China, and rising geopolitical challenges have altered the foundation for Asia’s recent growth. How will policymakers adjust to the medium-term risks raised by these uncertainties?
- How will China’s slowdown impact growth in the region?
- How are risks to sovereign credit changing as a result?
- Will fiscal consolidation be sustainable in the medium term?
10:35
SGT
