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The slowing of China economy – long an engine for global growth – will have major implications for sovereign credit, particularly in Asia. Policymakers in China are also facing a structural transformation in the property sector and a difficult deleveraging process for regional and local governments. How will they respond to the challenging trade-offs at hand? Meanwhile, the lingering effects of recent Fed and ECB rate hikes point to more subdued global growth. What are the key risks and challenges facing Asian sovereigns?
A forward-looking analysis of sovereign defaults, after years of record-high default rates: while the recent years’ records are unlikely to repeat, default rates will remain above the long-term average for the foreseeable future.
Much of Asia has benefited from a post-COVID growth recovery, despite a mild inflation in 2023. Fiscal consolidation has started, while monetary policy remains balanced. But higher global interest rates, slowing growth in China, and rising geopolitical challenges have altered the foundation for Asia’s recent growth. How will policymakers adjust to the medium-term risks raised by these uncertainties?
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Gene Fang is an Associate Managing Director in the Sovereign and sub-sovereign Ratings Group in Asia. Based in Singapore, he manages the teams responsible for sovereign credit ratings in the Asia Pacific region and credit research on Chinese regional- and local governments.
Before joining Moody’s, Gene worked as an investment banker, covering financial institutions for J.P. Morgan and Citigroup in Hong Kong and Singapore. In this role, he managed client relationships across Asia and advised on debt, equity, and M&A transactions. Gene graduated from Columbia University in political science. He also holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
Gene Fang is an Associate Managing Director in the Sovereign and sub-sovereign Ratings Group in Asia. Based in Singapore, he manages the teams responsible for sovereign credit ratings in the Asia Pacific region and credit research on Chinese regional- and local governments.
Before joining Moody’s, Gene worked as an investment banker, covering financial institutions for J.P. Morgan and Citigroup in Hong Kong and Singapore. In this role, he managed client relationships across Asia and advised on debt, equity, and M&A transactions. Gene graduated from Columbia University in political science. He also holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
Gene Ma is the head of China Research at IIF. IIF currently has 30 Chinese members, including banks, brokers, asset managers and insurance companies. Prior to IIF, Gene was the China economist and strategist at Tudor Investment, a global macro hedge fund. He has also worked at ISI Group (Now Evercore ISI), Citic Securities (Beijing), and China’s Ministry of Finance. Gene has been visiting professors at University of Illinois and George Washington Univ. Gene graduated from Peking University and Cornell University.
Christian de Guzman is a Senior Vice President with Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Singapore, he covers a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in Asia Pacific, including Japan, India and a number of Southeast Asian credits, while also managing the team responsible for sub-sovereign ratings in Asia ex-China.
Christian joined Moody’s in 2009, after working as a Senior Economist for the Monetary Authority of Singapore, covering ASEAN economies. He has also held various positions with the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, and Procter & Gamble in Singapore.
Christian was a Phi Beta Kappa graduate in Economics and Political Science at the University of Georgia and received his M.A. in International Economics and Southeast Asian Studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
Christian de Guzman is a Senior Vice President with Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Singapore, he covers a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in Asia Pacific, including Japan, India and a number of Southeast Asian credits, while also managing the team responsible for sub-sovereign ratings in Asia ex-China.
Christian joined Moody’s in 2009, after working as a Senior Economist for the Monetary Authority of Singapore, covering ASEAN economies. He has also held various positions with the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, and Procter & Gamble in Singapore.
Christian was a Phi Beta Kappa graduate in Economics and Political Science at the University of Georgia and received his M.A. in International Economics and Southeast Asian Studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
Anushka Shah is a Vice President with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Singapore, Anushka covers a number of countries in Asia Pacific, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Maldives and Mongolia.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Anushka worked for more than seven years at Citi Investment Research in Bombay, where her focus was on the South Asian economies.
Anushka has a Master’s in Economics and Finance from the University of Warwick and a Bachelor’s in Economics from the University of Bombay.
Deborah Tan is a Vice President within Moody’s Credit Strategy and Standards Group. Based in Singapore, she leads Moody’s thematic research for India, Southeast Asia and Australia with a focus on producing forward-looking macro-credit insights and outlooks. Her responsibilities also include designing scenario analysis to test the resilience of Moody’s rating methodologies and assessing the impact of these scenarios.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2019, Deborah was a macroeconomist at BHP Billiton where she covered both India and the US and led the Group’s interest rate, FX and long-term growth projections for key markets. She has also worked at the Monetary Authority of Singapore and PWC.
Deborah holds a master’s in Economics from the University of Cambridge and a bachelor of science in Economics from University College London.
Marcus Yiu is an Analyst with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Singapore, he supports lead analysts in covering a portfolio of sovereign credits in the Asia Pacific and Central Asia regions.
Marcus joined Moody’s in January 2020, after working at J.P. Morgan Asset Management as a Market Analyst based in Hong Kong. There, he performed macroeconomic and market research with a focus on Asia and took part in generating asset allocation ideas for clients.
Marcus graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the University of Warwick.
Gene Fang is an Associate Managing Director in the Sovereign and sub-sovereign Ratings Group in Asia. Based in Singapore, he manages the teams responsible for sovereign credit ratings in the Asia Pacific region and credit research on Chinese regional- and local governments.
Before joining Moody’s, Gene worked as an investment banker, covering financial institutions for J.P. Morgan and Citigroup in Hong Kong and Singapore. In this role, he managed client relationships across Asia and advised on debt, equity, and M&A transactions. Gene graduated from Columbia University in political science. He also holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
Gene Ma is the head of China Research at IIF. IIF currently has 30 Chinese members, including banks, brokers, asset managers and insurance companies. Prior to IIF, Gene was the China economist and strategist at Tudor Investment, a global macro hedge fund. He has also worked at ISI Group (Now Evercore ISI), Citic Securities (Beijing), and China’s Ministry of Finance. Gene has been visiting professors at University of Illinois and George Washington Univ. Gene graduated from Peking University and Cornell University.
