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How are sovereigns navigating this new rates landscape: heightened policy dilemma or track record of resiliency in responding to higher spending pressure and securing support for reforms?
A forward-looking analysis of sovereign defaults, after years of record-high default rates: while the recent years’ records are unlikely to repeat, default rates will remain above the long-term average for the foreseeable future.
An open conversation on some of the key themes likely to shape sovereign credit for years to come. The evolving geostrategic landscape and geopolitical realignments will significantly impact the global economic and trade order. On the domestic front, socio-political factors present a complex political economy for policymakers.
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Anne McElvoy is Executive Editor of Politico heading multimedia strategy and audio content and hosting an upcoming interview show. For the past seven years, Anne has run The Economist’s podcasts focusing on the role of new multimedia products in the brand’s expansion and creating US partnerships for growth.
Anne has written her weekly politics column for the Evening Standard for over 20 years and contributes columns to the newspaper and others. She is a presenter of Start the Week on BBC Radio4, panelist for the Moral Maze and host of Week in Westminster.
Anne has a First Class Honours Degree in German and Philosophy from Wadham College, Oxford and is a specialist in DDR society and literature. Her two books on modern Germany are a history of East Germany and the international best-seller, Memoirs of a Spymaster, Markus Wolf.
As The Times’s correspondent in East Berlin, she reported the fall of the Berlin Wall. Subsequently she covered the Yugoslavia and Chechnya wars and was the paper’s bureau chief in Moscow during the rise of Vladimir Putin.
Anne has received the Westminster journalist of the year/Women in Public Life award. She is an education board member of the World Economic Forum at Davos and the Royal Opera House in London. Her languages are German, Russian and French. She is a former gymnast – with emphasis on the former.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Lucie is the lead analyst for several Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and supranational issuers and is a senior member of Moody’s Africa Sovereign Ratings team. Prior to January 2015, she covered a variety of advanced and emerging market European sovereign credits, having joined the Sovereign Risk Group in early 2011 from Moody’s Sub-Sovereign Group.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2007, Lucie spent two years at the French Ministry of Finance in the Forecast division, responsible for projections and analyses of France’s government finances.
Lucie holds a postgraduate degree in Probability and Statistics from a French Engineering School (ENSAI) and a Master’s degree in Economics from the Panthéon-Sorbonne University in Paris.
Kathrin joined Moody’s Ratings in April 2010 as a member of the Sovereign Risk Group. She is the lead analyst for a number of European sovereigns including Turkey and Israel as well as several MDBs such as the IFC, EBRD and AIIB among others. She is also Moody’s global coordinator for all of Moody’s MDB ratings.
Prior to joining Moody’s Kathrin was a Director with Merrill Lynch, working as Sovereign Ratings Advisor to governments and banks in emerging markets. Prior to that, she was Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank in Spain.
She holds a M.Sc. in Economics, Latin American Politics, Spanish and Portuguese languages from the University of Tuebingen as well as a post-graduate economics degree from the College of Europe, Bruges.
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
David Rogovic is an Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.
Matt Robinson manages the Sovereign Risk Group’s Middle East and Africa team producing ratings and research regarding sovereign and supranational creditworthiness in Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East/North Africa. He is responsible for managing staff located in London, Frankfurt, Dubai and New York.
Matt joined Moody’s in 2007 after a decade of macroeconomic and public policy experience. Prior to managing the Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings team, Matt was the Director of Sovereign Research, responsible for coordinating and contributing to the research produced by Moody’s global team of sovereign risk analysts. Matt previously managed the affairs of the Moody’s Economy.com Sydney office, providing independent economic analysis, data and forecasting and credit risk services to Moody’s Analytics’ worldwide client base. Before joining Moody’s, Matt worked as an economist and policy adviser in a number of public and private sector organisations, including Commonwealth Treasury and the Economic Division of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet in Australia.
Matt received his bachelor of economics from the University of Newcastle(Australia) and his graduate degree from the Australian National University.
Scott Phillips is the Global Head of Emerging Markets Credit Strategy reporting to Atsi Sheth and based in London. He is responsible for a highly visible team that articulates MIS’s insights, analysis and thought-leadership on the global EM universe, which covers all elements of fixed-income credit – sovereign, corporates, financials, infrastructure and structured finance. Until July 2022, Scott was the Head of Strategy & Business Management at Moody’s, responsible for analyzing key capital market developments across MIS’s core geographies and new regions of strategic interest. He oversaw Moody’s investment in GCR Ratings, a domestic CRA in Africa, and served as Representative Director for both Midroog and MERIS, in Israel and Egypt respectively. Prior to joining Moody’s in London, Scott was an equity research analyst and started his career with Dresdner Kleinwort where he covered the European utility sector. His analytical career also took him to Ofgem (the UK energy regulator), UniCredit and BlackRock. Scott has a degree in Molecular & Cellular Biochemistry from the University of Oxford and is mid-way through a second Masters in Computer Science from the University of Bath.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Anne McElvoy is Executive Editor of Politico heading multimedia strategy and audio content and hosting an upcoming interview show. For the past seven years, Anne has run The Economist’s podcasts focusing on the role of new multimedia products in the brand’s expansion and creating US partnerships for growth.
Anne has written her weekly politics column for the Evening Standard for over 20 years and contributes columns to the newspaper and others. She is a presenter of Start the Week on BBC Radio4, panelist for the Moral Maze and host of Week in Westminster.
Anne has a First Class Honours Degree in German and Philosophy from Wadham College, Oxford and is a specialist in DDR society and literature. Her two books on modern Germany are a history of East Germany and the international best-seller, Memoirs of a Spymaster, Markus Wolf.
As The Times’s correspondent in East Berlin, she reported the fall of the Berlin Wall. Subsequently she covered the Yugoslavia and Chechnya wars and was the paper’s bureau chief in Moscow during the rise of Vladimir Putin.
Anne has received the Westminster journalist of the year/Women in Public Life award. She is an education board member of the World Economic Forum at Davos and the Royal Opera House in London. Her languages are German, Russian and French. She is a former gymnast – with emphasis on the former.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
