State of Nations 2023-2024

Sovereign credit shifts: debt sustainability, economics, geopolitics 

This year’s State of Nations events joined Moody’s experts with guest speakers Anne McElvoy, Politico's Executive Editor and Gene Ma, Head of China Research at the IIF.

Speakers shared their insights on the outlook for economic growth, government debt, social risks and the impact of geopolitical and climate risk on sovereign credits, with hundreds of audience members tuning in from across 80 countries.

Anne McElvoy Executive Editor Politico Bio


14:35 - 15:05

Sovereign debt dynamics in a world of higher for longer rates

How are sovereigns navigating this new rates landscape: heightened policy dilemma or track record of resiliency in responding to higher spending pressure and securing support for reforms?

  • Which sovereigns will be under significant pressure amid tight financial conditions, dollar strength, and sticky inflation?  
  • Will there be more (instead of new) debt restructurings in 2024?
  • How will sovereigns manage to balance the challenges of high social demands, fiscal consolidation in the presence of rising interest bill and long-term reform imperatives? 
15:05 - 15:20

Is the worst behind us for sovereign defaults?

A forward-looking analysis of sovereign defaults, after years of record-high default rates: while the recent years’ records are unlikely to repeat, default rates will remain above the long-term average for the foreseeable future. 

  • How will the effect of higher debt servicing costs affect debt sustainability? 
  • Which sovereigns can expect some improvement in credit conditions once monetary policy easing gets underway? 
  • What do Moody’s sovereign ratings indicate about the risk of further defaults in 2024?
15:20 - 15:55

The credit implications of shifting geostrategy and political economy dynamics

An open conversation on some of the key themes likely to shape sovereign credit for years to come. The evolving geostrategic landscape and geopolitical realignments will significantly impact the global economic and trade order. On the domestic front, socio-political factors present a complex political economy for policymakers.

  • How are China’s relationships with the US and Russia evolving and what global implications will that have? What risks to geostrategic alliances are posed by recent developments in the Middle East?
  • How will the new and evolving emerging market alliances shape trade and financial flows? 
  • Is the shift toward more active industrial policies likely to last? Is it making governments more effective at addressing the current political economy challenges?

Event concludes

Why attend?


Master the credit risks set to shape 2024


Unlock key insights from recent trends in sovereign credit


Harness expert views on pivotal macroeconomic shifts