Speakers
Agenda
15.15
- 15.25
GMT
Global Debt Dynamics
Fiscal trade-offs between consolidation and urgent spending priorities will determine long-term government debt trajectories. Using the latest Moody’s data, this session will cover trends and projections for government debt across advanced economies, emerging markets, and frontier markets.
15.25
- 16.00
GMT
Sovereign Outlook
- Which sovereigns will face hurdles to achieve economic reforms and debt reduction given fiscal constraints, geopolitical tensions and high social risks?
- How will sovereigns increase their shock-absorption capacity given rising exposure to shocks?
- How significant is liquidity risk among emerging and frontier markets? Will monetary policy loosening support their financing conditions?
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Bronwen Maddox took up the post of Director and Chief Executive of Chatham House in August 2022. Before joining Chatham House, Bronwen was Director of the Institute for Government (2016-2022), an independent think tank based in London promoting better government. From 2010 to 2016 she was editor and chief executive of Prospect, the monthly current affairs magazine. Before that, she served as chief foreign commentator, foreign editor and US editor at The Times, after a period at the Financial Times where she ran award-winning investigations and wrote economics editorials.
Before becoming a journalist, Bronwen was an investment analyst in the City and a director of Kleinwort Benson Securities, where she ran its highly-rated team analysing world media stocks.
Bronwen is a Visiting Professor in the Policy Institute at King’s College London, Honorary Governor of Ditchley, an honorary fellow of the British Academy, and a council member of Research England, one of the research councils of UK Research & Innovation. She writes frequent op-ed columns for the Financial Times and broadcasts widely.
Bronwen has a degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from St John’s College, Oxford.
Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Ratings, overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of Ratings Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Marie Diron is global head of Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group, with responsibility for credit ratings on countries, regional and local governments, public sector entities and multilateral development banks. Marie is also Moody’s Investors Service lead coordinator on ESG monitoring and integration across asset classes.
Marie has worked in various functions at Moody’s in the Sovereign Risk Group and (then) Credit Policy. In particular, she was lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits including Australia, China, India and some frontier market sovereigns. She then managed the Asia Pacific sovereign team, before expanding her responsibilities to today’s global role. Previously, in Credit Policy, Marie co-ordinated Moody’s Global Macro Outlook and other credit research.
Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
David Rogovic is an Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.
Jorge R. Valez is a Senior Vice President at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in London. He serves as lead analyst for a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in the EMEA region. He is also a global lead in analytical projects aimed at supporting rating accuracy and thought leadership across sovereign credit risks.
Jorge joined Moody’s in 2014 in the Financial Institutions Group. He also worked at Credit Strategy and Research leading the team responsible for banking projections and stress tests globally, as well as foundational research on ratings and capital markets.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Jorge worked for a bank as a macroeconomist responsible for forecasting and scenario analysis, and as a university lecturer in Macroeconomics and Econometrics.
Jorge is a PhD in Econometrics and holds degrees in Economics and in Business Administration.
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Evan is a Vice President - Senior Credit Officer working on sovereign ratings focused on Northern and Eastern Europe as well as the CIS. His portfolio has included the UK, Switzerland, Iceland, Hungary, Serbia, the Baltics, Ukraine and Moldova. Evan joined Moody’s in 2015 after a varied career in the UK public and private sector. Prior to starting at Moody’s, he spent five and half years working as an economist at the Bank of England, where his last role was an economic adviser in the External Monetary Policy Committee unit.
He also worked as a financial economist in the Monetary Analysis division as well as in the bank resolution area working with other UK authorities to monitor and resolve financial institutions as part of the UK’s Resolution Regime. Before joining the Bank of England, he worked in corporate finance at KPMG focusing on debt advisory and mergers and acquisitions. He holds an MSc in Finance from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Spain as well as an MComm in Economics from the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.
Bronwen Maddox took up the post of Director and Chief Executive of Chatham House in August 2022. Before joining Chatham House, Bronwen was Director of the Institute for Government (2016-2022), an independent think tank based in London promoting better government. From 2010 to 2016 she was editor and chief executive of Prospect, the monthly current affairs magazine. Before that, she served as chief foreign commentator, foreign editor and US editor at The Times, after a period at the Financial Times where she ran award-winning investigations and wrote economics editorials.
Before becoming a journalist, Bronwen was an investment analyst in the City and a director of Kleinwort Benson Securities, where she ran its highly-rated team analysing world media stocks.
Bronwen is a Visiting Professor in the Policy Institute at King’s College London, Honorary Governor of Ditchley, an honorary fellow of the British Academy, and a council member of Research England, one of the research councils of UK Research & Innovation. She writes frequent op-ed columns for the Financial Times and broadcasts widely.
Bronwen has a degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from St John’s College, Oxford.
Bronwen Maddox took up the post of Director and Chief Executive of Chatham House in August 2022. Before joining Chatham House, Bronwen was Director of the Institute for Government (2016-2022), an independent think tank based in London promoting better government. From 2010 to 2016 she was editor and chief executive of Prospect, the monthly current affairs magazine. Before that, she served as chief foreign commentator, foreign editor and US editor at The Times, after a period at the Financial Times where she ran award-winning investigations and wrote economics editorials.
Before becoming a journalist, Bronwen was an investment analyst in the City and a director of Kleinwort Benson Securities, where she ran its highly-rated team analysing world media stocks.
Bronwen is a Visiting Professor in the Policy Institute at King’s College London, Honorary Governor of Ditchley, an honorary fellow of the British Academy, and a council member of Research England, one of the research councils of UK Research & Innovation. She writes frequent op-ed columns for the Financial Times and broadcasts widely.
Bronwen has a degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from St John’s College, Oxford.
Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Ratings, overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of Ratings Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Marie Diron is global head of Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group, with responsibility for credit ratings on countries, regional and local governments, public sector entities and multilateral development banks. Marie is also Moody’s Investors Service lead coordinator on ESG monitoring and integration across asset classes.
Marie has worked in various functions at Moody’s in the Sovereign Risk Group and (then) Credit Policy. In particular, she was lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits including Australia, China, India and some frontier market sovereigns. She then managed the Asia Pacific sovereign team, before expanding her responsibilities to today’s global role. Previously, in Credit Policy, Marie co-ordinated Moody’s Global Macro Outlook and other credit research.
Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
David Rogovic is an Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.
Jorge R. Valez is a Senior Vice President at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in London. He serves as lead analyst for a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in the EMEA region. He is also a global lead in analytical projects aimed at supporting rating accuracy and thought leadership across sovereign credit risks.
Jorge joined Moody’s in 2014 in the Financial Institutions Group. He also worked at Credit Strategy and Research leading the team responsible for banking projections and stress tests globally, as well as foundational research on ratings and capital markets.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Jorge worked for a bank as a macroeconomist responsible for forecasting and scenario analysis, and as a university lecturer in Macroeconomics and Econometrics.
Jorge is a PhD in Econometrics and holds degrees in Economics and in Business Administration.
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Evan is a Vice President - Senior Credit Officer working on sovereign ratings focused on Northern and Eastern Europe as well as the CIS. His portfolio has included the UK, Switzerland, Iceland, Hungary, Serbia, the Baltics, Ukraine and Moldova. Evan joined Moody’s in 2015 after a varied career in the UK public and private sector. Prior to starting at Moody’s, he spent five and half years working as an economist at the Bank of England, where his last role was an economic adviser in the External Monetary Policy Committee unit.
He also worked as a financial economist in the Monetary Analysis division as well as in the bank resolution area working with other UK authorities to monitor and resolve financial institutions as part of the UK’s Resolution Regime. Before joining the Bank of England, he worked in corporate finance at KPMG focusing on debt advisory and mergers and acquisitions. He holds an MSc in Finance from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Spain as well as an MComm in Economics from the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.
Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Ratings, overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of Ratings Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Marie Diron is global head of Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group, with responsibility for credit ratings on countries, regional and local governments, public sector entities and multilateral development banks. Marie is also Moody’s Investors Service lead coordinator on ESG monitoring and integration across asset classes.
Marie has worked in various functions at Moody’s in the Sovereign Risk Group and (then) Credit Policy. In particular, she was lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits including Australia, China, India and some frontier market sovereigns. She then managed the Asia Pacific sovereign team, before expanding her responsibilities to today’s global role. Previously, in Credit Policy, Marie co-ordinated Moody’s Global Macro Outlook and other credit research.
Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Bronwen Maddox took up the post of Director and Chief Executive of Chatham House in August 2022. Before joining Chatham House, Bronwen was Director of the Institute for Government (2016-2022), an independent think tank based in London promoting better government. From 2010 to 2016 she was editor and chief executive of Prospect, the monthly current affairs magazine. Before that, she served as chief foreign commentator, foreign editor and US editor at The Times, after a period at the Financial Times where she ran award-winning investigations and wrote economics editorials.
Before becoming a journalist, Bronwen was an investment analyst in the City and a director of Kleinwort Benson Securities, where she ran its highly-rated team analysing world media stocks.
Bronwen is a Visiting Professor in the Policy Institute at King’s College London, Honorary Governor of Ditchley, an honorary fellow of the British Academy, and a council member of Research England, one of the research councils of UK Research & Innovation. She writes frequent op-ed columns for the Financial Times and broadcasts widely.
Bronwen has a degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from St John’s College, Oxford.
David Rogovic is an Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.
Jorge R. Valez is a Senior Vice President at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in London. He serves as lead analyst for a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in the EMEA region. He is also a global lead in analytical projects aimed at supporting rating accuracy and thought leadership across sovereign credit risks.
Jorge joined Moody’s in 2014 in the Financial Institutions Group. He also worked at Credit Strategy and Research leading the team responsible for banking projections and stress tests globally, as well as foundational research on ratings and capital markets.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Jorge worked for a bank as a macroeconomist responsible for forecasting and scenario analysis, and as a university lecturer in Macroeconomics and Econometrics.
Jorge is a PhD in Econometrics and holds degrees in Economics and in Business Administration.
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Evan is a Vice President - Senior Credit Officer working on sovereign ratings focused on Northern and Eastern Europe as well as the CIS. His portfolio has included the UK, Switzerland, Iceland, Hungary, Serbia, the Baltics, Ukraine and Moldova. Evan joined Moody’s in 2015 after a varied career in the UK public and private sector. Prior to starting at Moody’s, he spent five and half years working as an economist at the Bank of England, where his last role was an economic adviser in the External Monetary Policy Committee unit.
He also worked as a financial economist in the Monetary Analysis division as well as in the bank resolution area working with other UK authorities to monitor and resolve financial institutions as part of the UK’s Resolution Regime. Before joining the Bank of England, he worked in corporate finance at KPMG focusing on debt advisory and mergers and acquisitions. He holds an MSc in Finance from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Spain as well as an MComm in Economics from the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.
Jorge R. Valez is a Senior Vice President at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in London. He serves as lead analyst for a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in the EMEA region. He is also a global lead in analytical projects aimed at supporting rating accuracy and thought leadership across sovereign credit risks.
Jorge joined Moody’s in 2014 in the Financial Institutions Group. He also worked at Credit Strategy and Research leading the team responsible for banking projections and stress tests globally, as well as foundational research on ratings and capital markets.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Jorge worked for a bank as a macroeconomist responsible for forecasting and scenario analysis, and as a university lecturer in Macroeconomics and Econometrics.
Jorge is a PhD in Econometrics and holds degrees in Economics and in Business Administration.