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Agenda13:00GMT
Divergence in macro environment and credit risks amid elevated geopolitical tensions
Ongoing military operations in Gaza and the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah are keeping geopolitical tensions elevated in the region. The credit impact on Lebanon is already significant, while the risks for Israel are growing. Other Middle East countries are less exposed, but vulnerable to tail risks should Iran become directly involved.
- What are Moody’s assumptions about the conflict in the region and the tail risks?
- What is the credit impact of the conflict on Israel and Lebanon?
- What are the factors driving the resilience of other Middle East countries, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council?
- What the prospects for external financing, especially for Egypt, amid rising geopolitical risks?
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SpeakersAlexander Perjéssy Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Kathrin Muehlbronner Senior Vice President, Global MDB Lead, Sovereign & Sub Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Christian Fang Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Elisa Parisi-Capone Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
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Event Manager
If you have any questions about the event, please contact Nina Zhukovskaya at Nina.Zhukovskaya@moodys.com.
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Alexander Perjéssy is Vice President – Senior Credit Officer at the Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group.
Based in Dubai, he has lead analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereigns in the Middle East, including most of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states and several regional multilateral institutions.
Prior to joining Moody’s in November 2017, Alex worked for two years as economist at the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Before relocating to the Middle East, Alex spent more than 12 years covering macroeconomic developments and sovereign risk assessment in the emerging markets of the EMEA region for AllianceBernstein and The Rohatyn Group, both US-based asset management firms in New York, as well as for Goldman Sachs in London.
Alex holds an MA in Economics from the University of Maryland and a BA in Economics from Middlebury College.
Kathrin joined Moody’s Ratings in April 2010 as a member of the Sovereign Risk Group. She is the lead analyst for a number of European sovereigns including Turkey and Israel as well as several MDBs such as the IFC, EBRD and AIIB among others. She is also Moody’s global coordinator for all of Moody’s MDB ratings.
Prior to joining Moody’s Kathrin was a Director with Merrill Lynch, working as Sovereign Ratings Advisor to governments and banks in emerging markets. Prior to that, she was Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank in Spain.
She holds a M.Sc. in Economics, Latin American Politics, Spanish and Portuguese languages from the University of Tuebingen as well as a post-graduate economics degree from the College of Europe, Bruges.
Christian Fang is a Vice President and Senior Analyst with the Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service.
Based in Dubai, Christian serves as lead analyst for a portfolio of sovereigns in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, including Jordan, Kuwait, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka.
He is also lead analyst for the Gulf Investment Corporation and the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector, multilateral development banks serving the interests of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, respectively.
Christian was formerly based in Singapore covering a portfolio of predominantly Asia Pacific and Eurasian sovereigns and sub-sovereigns.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Christian was a Lead Portfolio Manager for the Monetary Authority of Singapore, where he was responsible for the investment of Singapore’s foreign reserves in European fixed income, global investment-grade credit, and global developed equity markets.
His time with the central bank included a two-and-a-half-year stint in London as its sole in-house investment representative. He also worked in monetary policy operations and macroprudential policy research, and was involved in the negotiation of Singapore’s renminbi swap line with China, as well as banking systemwide stress tests.
Christian holds an honors bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Chicago and a master’s degree in Finance from Princeton University.
Elisa is Vice President – Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York. She has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of North- and Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and supranationals. Her previous regional coverage also included sovereigns in Southeast Europe and in the CIS. Prior to joining Moody’s, Elisa spent two years at the Swiss Ministry of Finance in Berne, Switzerland, and seven years as Senior Analyst at Roubini Global Economic in New York covering the Euro area and Finance and Banking issues. Elisa holds an MA in Economics from New York University (NYU) and completed her undergraduate studies with a Lizentiat in Economics from the University of Zurich, Switzerland. Elisa speaks fluent German and Italian and proficient French