The session explored the shifting balance of global and domestic policy: the consolidation of power around the US and China with the EU forming a “rules group,” the WTO’s continued role in sustaining global trade despite rising tensions, and the UK’s struggle with weak productivity and tight fiscal limits as it seeks space for growth-focused investment.
Global power is consolidating around two major poles—the US and China—with a potential “rules group” emerging around the EU. He argues that while many economies still support multilateral cooperation, the US is the only country directly challenging the post-war global system.
The WTO framework continues to underpin global trade even as bilateral tensions rise. He describes how agreements, dispute systems and adherence to formal processes create stability, and notes the geopolitical limits of US–EU trade relations.
Creon Butler examines the UK’s economic position, highlighting slow productivity growth, fiscal constraints and the importance of sustained infrastructure investment. He outlines options for revising debt rules, attracting private capital and reforming benefits to create space for growth-focused spending.
The session explored how regulation and market trends are reshaping UK banking. It highlighted growing consolidation among major lenders, modest regulatory reforms to boost competitiveness, and the FCA’s £11 billion motor finance redress scheme, expected to affect smaller lenders more than large banks.
Major UK banks have expanded through acquisitions of mid-sized lenders, reinforcing their dominance. We expect further consolidation to target specialist lenders.
The FCA’s £11 billion motor finance redress plan clarifies cost allocations, with large banks able to absorb losses and smaller lenders facing greater exposure.
The session explored how regulatory change, market dynamics and evolving risks are shaping the outlook for Europe’s banks. Speakers discussed Basel 3.1 implementation, risk transfer strategies, the rise of private credit and the investment required to strengthen resilience and competitiveness in a shifting global landscape.
UK banks face adjusted capital rules aimed at stability.
Reforms support competitiveness while preserving system resilience.
Basel 3.1 aligns UK regulation with international standards.
SRTs offer targeted relief but raise structural risks.
Banks use risk transfer tools to manage capital efficiently.
Banks must invest in technology to address evolving risks.
Economic uncertainty underscores banks’ need for prudent growth.
Sovereign resilience and risk in a rewired world
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