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Agenda15.00SGT
China in Transition: How will it manage deleveraging amidst slowing growth?
China has entered a period of slowing growth as long-term factors such as a declining working age population and modest productivity growth are compounded by the transition costs of property market reform and a central government focus on deleveraging and reducing the potential for financial sector stress. This is posing significant challenges for policy makers as they attempt to improve living standards, restructure the economy and constrain the growth of leverage.
- Has the medium-term growth outlook changed, and how?
- How is property reform and LGFV related stress playing out?
- Can policymakers avoid significant systemic breakdown?
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SpeakersGene Fang Executive Director, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Martin Petch Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Ratings
Lillian Li Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy and Guidance Group Moody's Ratings
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Gene Fang is an Executive Director in the Sovereign and Sub-sovereign Ratings Group in Asia. Based in Singapore, he manages the team responsible for sovereign and sub-sovereign ratings in the Asia Pacific region, as well as analysts covering regional and local governments in China. In addition, Gene leads Moody’s Digital Economy strategy in the Asia Pacific region, including engagement with regulators and market participants on Moody’s initiatives in digital finance.
Before joining Moody’s, Gene worked as an investment banker for J.P. Morgan and Citigroup, where we covered financial institutions in Asia. Gene graduated from Columbia University in political science. He also holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
Martin Petch is a Vice President with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Singapore, he covers a portfolio of sovereign credits in the Asia Pacific region – including Japan, Indonesia and Mongolia - as well as credits in Oceania and the South Pacific.
Martin joined Moody’s in 2017, after working as the Chief Economist and Manager of Economic Analysis and Research with BHP Billiton covering its key commodity markets, China, Japan and India, economies in the South East Asian region, and the major advanced economies. Martin also held various positions with the Australian Commonwealth Treasury, the Commonwealth Bank and the Australian Industry Group. Martin was a graduate in Economics from the University of Western Australia.
Lillian Li is a Vice President–Senior Credit Officer in the Credit Strategy and Guidance Group.
Based in Shanghai, Lillian contributes to thematic research on China, Japan and Korea, particularly with a cross-sectoral and macroeconomic credit focus. Lillian also drives and coordinates research initiatives covering major regional credit events.
Lillian’s role includes designing scenario analysis to test the resilience of credit ratings to a range of potential economic outcomes, as well as developing research publications on macro and credit trends and general market outreach for Great China.
Lillian joined Moody’s after eight years with the McKinsey Global Institute, where she led China macro-related research, including trends related to the macroeconomy, local government debt, as well as urbanization and sustainability. Lillian was also involved in analyzing the real estate, steel, auto and internet retail sectors.
Prior to joining McKinsey, Lillian was an Economic Analyst with the Canadian government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Lillian holds a Masters in Economics from the University of Ottawa and an MBA from the University of Warwick.
Gene Fang is an Executive Director in the Sovereign and Sub-sovereign Ratings Group in Asia. Based in Singapore, he manages the team responsible for sovereign and sub-sovereign ratings in the Asia Pacific region, as well as analysts covering regional and local governments in China. In addition, Gene leads Moody’s Digital Economy strategy in the Asia Pacific region, including engagement with regulators and market participants on Moody’s initiatives in digital finance.
Before joining Moody’s, Gene worked as an investment banker for J.P. Morgan and Citigroup, where we covered financial institutions in Asia. Gene graduated from Columbia University in political science. He also holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
Martin Petch is a Vice President with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Singapore, he covers a portfolio of sovereign credits in the Asia Pacific region – including Japan, Indonesia and Mongolia - as well as credits in Oceania and the South Pacific.
Martin joined Moody’s in 2017, after working as the Chief Economist and Manager of Economic Analysis and Research with BHP Billiton covering its key commodity markets, China, Japan and India, economies in the South East Asian region, and the major advanced economies. Martin also held various positions with the Australian Commonwealth Treasury, the Commonwealth Bank and the Australian Industry Group. Martin was a graduate in Economics from the University of Western Australia.
Lillian Li is a Vice President–Senior Credit Officer in the Credit Strategy and Guidance Group.
Based in Shanghai, Lillian contributes to thematic research on China, Japan and Korea, particularly with a cross-sectoral and macroeconomic credit focus. Lillian also drives and coordinates research initiatives covering major regional credit events.
Lillian’s role includes designing scenario analysis to test the resilience of credit ratings to a range of potential economic outcomes, as well as developing research publications on macro and credit trends and general market outreach for Great China.
Lillian joined Moody’s after eight years with the McKinsey Global Institute, where she led China macro-related research, including trends related to the macroeconomy, local government debt, as well as urbanization and sustainability. Lillian was also involved in analyzing the real estate, steel, auto and internet retail sectors.
Prior to joining McKinsey, Lillian was an Economic Analyst with the Canadian government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Lillian holds a Masters in Economics from the University of Ottawa and an MBA from the University of Warwick.