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Agenda15:00GMT
Sovereign credit implications of declining debt affordability and increased political polarization
Long-term pressures have continued to build on the US sovereign credit profile due to the steady weakening of the federal government’s fiscal position and gradual erosion of US institutional strength. The more recent surge in Treasury borrowing costs and deepening political divisions within Congress exacerbates these pressures and increases the urgency of a fiscal policy response that would help arrest the decline in US fiscal strength.
- What impact will higher interest rates have on US debt affordability and fiscal strength over the next decade?
- How does Moody’s assess the quality of institutions, governance and domestic political risk in the US?
- What developments could change Moody’s outlook on the US’s Aaa sovereign rating?
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SpeakersSarah Carlson Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Bill Foster Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
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Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
William (Bill) Foster is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York, where he currently serves as lead analyst on a portfolio of sovereign and supranational credits that include: the United States, Canada, Chile, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Honduras and the World Bank (IBRD and IDA). He previously served as lead analyst for India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Kazakhstan. Bill is global head of Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Cyber Risk Working Group and lead sovereign representative to Moody’s Global Cyber Risk Working Group. He also serves as co-host of Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture podcast series.
Bill joined Moody’s in August 2016, following 10 years at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He most recently served as Senior Advisor for International Financial Markets based in New York, where he was the Office of International Affairs’ first dedicated liaison to New York’s international financial community. From August 2012 to March 2015, he served as U.S. Financial Attaché to India at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. Bill joined Treasury’s Office of International Affairs as an international economist in 2006 and covered a wide range of geographies during his tenure, including Latin America, South and East Asia. Prior to joining Treasury, he worked as a management consultant at Accenture.
Bill holds a Master of International Affairs degree in International Financial and Economic Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a BA from Wesleyan University. He is a member of The Economic Club of New York, and has served as an Industry Advisory Board Member of Columbia Business School’s India Business Initiative and a member of SIPA’s Alumni Careers Advisory Committee.
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
William (Bill) Foster is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York, where he currently serves as lead analyst on a portfolio of sovereign and supranational credits that include: the United States, Canada, Chile, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Honduras and the World Bank (IBRD and IDA). He previously served as lead analyst for India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Kazakhstan. Bill is global head of Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Cyber Risk Working Group and lead sovereign representative to Moody’s Global Cyber Risk Working Group. He also serves as co-host of Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture podcast series.
Bill joined Moody’s in August 2016, following 10 years at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He most recently served as Senior Advisor for International Financial Markets based in New York, where he was the Office of International Affairs’ first dedicated liaison to New York’s international financial community. From August 2012 to March 2015, he served as U.S. Financial Attaché to India at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. Bill joined Treasury’s Office of International Affairs as an international economist in 2006 and covered a wide range of geographies during his tenure, including Latin America, South and East Asia. Prior to joining Treasury, he worked as a management consultant at Accenture.
Bill holds a Master of International Affairs degree in International Financial and Economic Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a BA from Wesleyan University. He is a member of The Economic Club of New York, and has served as an Industry Advisory Board Member of Columbia Business School’s India Business Initiative and a member of SIPA’s Alumni Careers Advisory Committee.