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Agenda16:00GMT
Stuck in low-growth mode facing domestic and external headwinds
Latin America experienced a robust recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic; however, many economies appear to be moving towards lackluster growth in 2024-25. Numerous countries within the region are poised to reap the benefits of the emerging nearshoring trend, as well as the increasing global demand for commodities amidst the transition to a carbon-neutral economy. Tight financial conditions domestically and internationally will exert pressure on the credit profiles of Latin American sovereigns. This is likely to diminish their fiscal space and limit their ability to address persistent social demands for enhanced and more comprehensive public services.
- What are the economic and fiscal prospects for the region? Which countries stand out as outliers?
- What has been the role of institutions? Where is policy continuity more at risk on account of a changing political landscape?
- How significant are the sovereign credit implications of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment and who is most exposed?
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SpeakersRenzo Merino Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody’s Ratings
Samar Maziad Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Jaime Reusche Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group Moody’s Investors Service
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Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.
Dr. Samar Maziad is a Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign RiskGroup in New York. She is a lead credit risk analyst for a portfolio of Latin American sovereigns and multilateral development banks, including Brazil and others. Prior tojoining Moody’s, Dr. Maziad was a Senior Economist at the International MonetaryFund, where she covered a wide range of macroeconomic and financial stability issues in emerging markets including China and Latin America.
Dr. Maziad is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements related to Latin America and emerging markets. Ms. Maziad holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of St. Andrews in the UK.
Jaime Reusche is a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s sovereign risk group. He has 11 years of industry experience. Mr. Reusche is responsible for analysis and ratings of Latin American sovereigns. He authors research on developments impacting sovereign credit quality, participates in sovereign rating committees, and is responsible for communicating sovereign risk group views in investor briefings and discussions with policymakers. Previously, he was lead analyst for a portfolio of Central and Eastern European sovereigns in the same group, before refocusing on Latin America.
He had worked as a Director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group covering Latin American credits including Argentina, Chile and Central American countries until 2011. Prior to this, Mr. Reusche held the positions of analyst, associate analyst and senior associate throughout his nearly seven years at the sovereigns group in Moody’s, where he covered Latin American and Eastern European sovereigns, and oversaw data collection for Moody’s semi-annual Country Statistical Handbook.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.
Dr. Samar Maziad is a Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign RiskGroup in New York. She is a lead credit risk analyst for a portfolio of Latin American sovereigns and multilateral development banks, including Brazil and others. Prior tojoining Moody’s, Dr. Maziad was a Senior Economist at the International MonetaryFund, where she covered a wide range of macroeconomic and financial stability issues in emerging markets including China and Latin America.
Dr. Maziad is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements related to Latin America and emerging markets. Ms. Maziad holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of St. Andrews in the UK.
Jaime Reusche is a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s sovereign risk group. He has 11 years of industry experience. Mr. Reusche is responsible for analysis and ratings of Latin American sovereigns. He authors research on developments impacting sovereign credit quality, participates in sovereign rating committees, and is responsible for communicating sovereign risk group views in investor briefings and discussions with policymakers. Previously, he was lead analyst for a portfolio of Central and Eastern European sovereigns in the same group, before refocusing on Latin America.
He had worked as a Director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group covering Latin American credits including Argentina, Chile and Central American countries until 2011. Prior to this, Mr. Reusche held the positions of analyst, associate analyst and senior associate throughout his nearly seven years at the sovereigns group in Moody’s, where he covered Latin American and Eastern European sovereigns, and oversaw data collection for Moody’s semi-annual Country Statistical Handbook.