2024 Credit Risk Forum
Uncertainty, Resilience, Opportunity
In-person event | London UK
Agenda
11:30
- 12:00
BST
Registration
12:00
- 12:45
BST
Networking Lunch
12:45
- 13:00
BST
Welcome Address
13:00
- 14:00
BST
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks: Their Effects on Corporate Credit
The Bank of England is holding interest rates steady as of their May meeting, but have suggested a cut could come in the fall closer to the General Election. We’ll delve into Moody's Ratings perspective on the current economic landscape, with a focus on inflation trends and interest rate dynamics across the UK and Europe, and how a range of macroeconomic stresses are poised to influence corporate credit quality.
14:00
- 14:45
BST
Resilience, Risk, and the Uncertain Outlook for Corporate Credit Markets
While corporate defaults have risen from their post-pandemic lows in response to sharply higher interest rates, tighter financing conditions, and economic uncertainty, credit markets have nonetheless proven to be remarkably resilient. But are we really out of the woods? David Hamilton will discuss the factors shaping the outlook for corporate credit in the UK and the US, including public debt issuers and private companies. Special guest Anthony O’Brien, Head of Market Strategy from The Phoenix Group, will share his observations and perspectives on the credit trends his team are watching.
14:45
- 15:15
BST
Refreshment Break
15:15
- 16:00
BST
Early Alerts, Smart Action: Signals That Drive Growth
The risk landscape is evolving rapidly, demanding the right methods and tools to keep up. Anticipating risks ranging from corporate credit risks to emerging risks like climate change, is paramount for managing them effectively. In this session will discuss how a robust early warning framework and scenario-based forecasting methods can help build resiliency. Jonathan Meagher from Aviva will talk about how the insurer is putting Moody’s climate risk scenarios to work in their investment process, and Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi from Moody’s will review how financial institutions and corporates can put these methods into practice.
16:00
- 17:00
BST
NextGen: Incorporating GenAI into Credit Decisioning and Monitoring
The journey of incorporating GenAI into credit and lending is evolving quickly as technology leaps forward, but balancing the benefits of advanced insights with the uncertainty of operational implementation is a challenge many institutions face. Ari Lehavi will discuss Moody’s GenAI product strategy and how we think it will fundamentally transform the practice of credit risk management. Nihil Patel will walk us through how Moody’s is developing industry-leading GenAI-powered risk intelligence solutions that surface insightful, actionable risk analysis.
17:00
- 17:30
BST
Networking Reception
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Colin Ellis is Moody’s first Global Credit Strategist, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy team.
In his current role, Colin provides thought leadership for the rating agency that deepens the understanding of ratings and debt capital markets through rigorous and quantitative research. He leads Moody’s teams working on default and ratings analytics and on global financial analysis, including bank projections and stress testing. Colin is also a member of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global forecasts that underpin Moody’s universe of ratings.
Colin joined Moody’s in February 2012, initially leading the work of the Macroeconomic Board and authoring the quarterly Global Macro Outlook. He subsequently worked in the Financial Institutions Group, developing quantitative forward-looking analyses. For 8 years he was the Chief Credit Officer for EMEA, leading analysis and coordination of credit and ratings across all rating franchises in the region. He was also the ‘Head of UK’ for Moody's Ratings, responsible for the running of Moody’s UK operations, from 2019-2022 including the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Colin held roles at the Bank of England, Daiwa Capital Markets, the BVCA and at Birmingham University. He has published papers on a range of topics including corporate investment and pricing, credit risk, private equity, data uncertainty, stress testing, financial contagion and monetary policy. Colin holds degrees from York University, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Middlesex University. He is a Visiting Professor at Hult International Business School and LSBU, and is also a Fellow of the RSA.
David Hamilton is a financial economist with a passion for broadening understanding of risk and credit markets. Dr. Hamilton currently serves as Managing Director, Head of Research & Analytics, in the Predictive Analytics team based in New York. From 2015-2020, Dr. Hamilton held the post of Managing Director, Head of Credit Risk Analytics for the Asia Pacific Region, based in Singapore. He has held various senior positions in both Moody’s Investors Service and Moody’s Analytics over his 26-year career with Moody's. He has worked across different asset classes, including corporates, high-yield, financial institutions, sovereigns, public finance, structured finance, and digital assets, and across divisions, including quantitative research, credit policy, business development and customer success. Prior to joining Moody’s in 1997, David worked in the Regional Economics group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Olga is a Managing Director in the Predictive Analytics team. She has dual responsibilities: overseeing Consumer Credit, Emerging and Integrated Risks research, while also serving as the Regional Manager of EMEA and APAC regions for Predictive Analytics.
Currently in Singapore and previously in Europe, she is a trusted advisor to senior leaders with a passion for helping them build resilience in their organization. Olga is with Moody's Analytics since 2010. She has been building teams and frameworks across a wide spectrum of disciplines and implementing complex systems and analytics for our clients globally, working across divisions including quantitative research, business development and customer success.
Olga holds a double Ph.D. and M.A. degree in Economics and Econometrics from CERGE-EI New York and by Charles University in the Czech Republic, following studies for MSc. in Mathematics and a BSc. with honors in Applied Mathematics.